Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 11.222479 13.734565 16.539664 19.884197 23.742520 28.032994 33.143064
2026-02-08 7.402825 10.520591 14.403487 19.508010 25.948167 33.706947 43.655212
2026-02-15 5.213996 8.405854 12.752450 18.918899 27.236701 37.851100 52.175946
2026-02-22 4.133319 7.415107 12.226163 19.477359 29.773708 43.489481 62.703302
2026-03-01 3.154524 6.300851 11.259339 19.174307 30.958001 47.273870 70.895301
2026-03-08 2.502173 5.530663 10.632170 19.203437 32.500485 51.528057 79.845522
2026-03-15 1.867738 4.616164 9.589747 18.404774 32.665208 53.753297 85.999666
2026-03-22 1.574915 4.266709 9.426083 18.959796 34.884254 59.021263 96.678186
2026-03-29 1.303993 3.885566 9.130794 19.231466 36.635232 63.644724 106.591339
2026-04-05 1.093705 3.577051 8.912133 19.589504 38.518711 68.530095 117.068939
2026-04-12 0.922858 3.310689 8.726052 19.967928 40.435161 73.530698 127.896252
2026-04-19 0.725626 2.908717 8.183939 19.602777 41.023192 76.425863 135.583907
2026-04-26 0.591795 2.649399 7.936521 19.842778 42.806393 81.528291 147.245144
2026-05-03 0.448069 2.297138 7.408917 19.460415 43.450592 84.825283 156.268169
2026-05-10 0.328204 1.956736 6.826938 18.871980 43.637789 87.332778 164.096384
2026-05-17 0.275349 1.837402 6.781663 19.429314 46.023406 93.680171 178.390741
2026-05-24 0.206604 1.606270 6.379001 19.126852 46.699614 97.078737 187.936516
2026-05-31 0.160956 1.446214 6.136785 19.155925 48.019921 101.651301 199.585706
2026-06-07 0.109847 1.206345 5.585508 18.358833 47.579962 103.030510 205.866623
2026-06-14 0.091569 1.143014 5.580357 18.912762 49.980305 109.661357 221.337261
2026-06-21 0.072739 1.055582 5.471315 19.183899 51.791650 115.274239 235.221522
2026-06-28 0.058387 0.984069 5.399355 19.541238 53.806783 121.340588 250.077834
2026-07-05 0.046845 0.920185 5.338405 19.918925 55.885970 127.602565 265.460032